DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) , As Israeli airstrikes reportedly kill senior Iranian generals, dismantle air defenses, and strike nuclear facilities, speculation is mounting over whether former U.S. President Donald Trump will escalate American involvement in the spiraling conflict.
Trump, known for his vocal opposition to what he called “stupid, endless wars” in the Middle East, has historically distanced himself from large-scale military interventions. Yet with Iran’s leadership appearing increasingly vulnerable, any U.S. military action could critically damage the country’s nuclear infrastructure or even threaten the longevity of its four-decade-old theocratic regime.
“I may do it, I may not do it,” Trump said at the White House when asked if he would authorize a strike. “Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”
However, recent U.S. history in the region offers a stark warning. Military interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya initially yielded rapid victories, but were ultimately mired in prolonged conflict, instability, and unintended consequences.
Initial Victories, Long-Term Quagmires
In the wake of the 9/11 attacks, U.S. forces quickly toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan and forced Osama bin Laden into hiding. Similarly, the 2003 invasion of Iraq swiftly dismantled Saddam Hussein’s regime. Yet both operations devolved into long and costly wars.
In Iraq, sectarian violence and insurgency gripped the country for years, while in Afghanistan, the Taliban reemerged to reclaim power after two decades, forcing a chaotic U.S. withdrawal in 2021.
Now, as Israel strikes Iran’s critical military assets, observers note that even the elimination of air defenses and nuclear sites won’t neutralize the Revolutionary Guard, Basij militias, or the hundreds of thousands of troops loyal to the regime forces that have effectively suppressed recent waves of civilian unrest.
Airstrikes Alone Won’t Topple the Regime
Air power has rarely achieved regime change on its own. Libya offers a cautionary tale: after a months-long NATO air campaign in 2011, only rebel ground forces were able to ultimately defeat Moammar Gadhafi. Iran, by contrast, lacks any similarly organized internal military opposition.
A foreign ground invasion especially of a mountainous nation with 80 million people and nearly four times the landmass of Iraq is almost unthinkable. Without an internal military split or popular uprising, external intervention risks triggering civil war rather than reform.
Will Iranians Rally or Revolt?
Many Iranians have demonstrated frustration with their government’s authoritarianism and corruption, especially during recent protests. But foreign aggression often unites populations. During Iraq’s 1980 invasion, Iranians famously rallied around their government despite deep grievances.
Today, most citizens appear to be avoiding public confrontation or fleeing urban centers like Tehran, uncertain of what comes next.
The Perils of Exiled Opposition
The U.S. has previously placed hope in exiled dissidents often to disappointing effect. Many Iraqi exiles who championed the 2003 invasion returned home with little influence, ultimately sidelined by militia groups aligned with Iran.
Iran’s foreign-based opposition remains fractured and disconnected. The most recognizable figure, Reza Pahlavi the exiled son of the deposed Shah has limited credibility. Though he’s reached out to Israel and Western powers, many Iranians view him as a relic of a past regime known for its own repression.
A Familiar Path to Chaos
If history is a guide, any collapse of Iran’s central government could trigger a now-familiar descent into chaos. Like in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, the weakening or toppling of a regime tends to give rise to armed factions, foreign interference, mass displacement, and radical groups filling power vacuums.
In Iraq, Saddam’s fall led to a dysfunctional government that remains heavily influenced by Tehran. In Libya, Gadhafi’s ouster created a patchwork of militias. And in Afghanistan, after two decades of U.S. involvement, the Taliban returned to power.
As pressure mounts in the region, the key question is not just whether Trump will act but whether any foreign intervention can avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.
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